Let me start with my thoughts on the chip shortage causing the price of used cars to rise, that is, outrageous.

But if you want to understand the truth of the price increase of used cars, you must start with the chip of the reason for the price increase.

Is the chip really lacking? lack! However, it is not a lack of our traditional understanding.

At present, the chip industry is mainly responsible for the main product output by two major manufacturers, one is TSMC and the other is Samsung. These two big manufacturers almost “monopolize” the entire chip industry. For example, the Qualcomm Snapdragon processor, which we are familiar with, is “contracted” by TSMC and Samsung. Another example is the Huawei Hisilicon Kirin processor, which is also from TSMC. hand.

That is to say, if these two factories fail, then we may be out of stock or the price of mobile phones when we buy them.

Judging from the previously released production capacity data, TSMC and Samsung are actually able to afford the global chip demand, and there is no possibility that the product cannot be made to increase prices or become in short supply. Even if there is a 1 in 10,000 possibility, if there is really a problem with supply, other manufacturers such as Toshiba can also afford part of the product demand.

So why does the problem of chip out of stock occur one after another?

On the one hand, due to the epidemic, the chip production bases in Southeast Asia have suffered from a series of shutdown crises. At the same time, due to the lack of effective control of the epidemic, its production capacity has not been able to recover. This directly leads to the fact that the original 100% capacity can only be opened at 70% or even lower.

Insufficient capacity is one reason for the shortage of chips. On the other hand, in order to supply the new generation of Sony PS5 and XBOX Series X chips, AMD has contracted TSMC’s production capacity in advance, and TSMC has to provide all the only production capacity to AMD in order to fulfill its own contract, which makes The abundant capacity that other manufacturers can allocate is too low.

Judging from the sales of PS5 and XBOX Series X on major purchasing platforms and overseas Amazon, they are almost in a state of buying if they want, which also illustrates this point.

At the same time, in addition to AMD, Apple is also an important customer of TSMC, and its production capacity will only be more than that of AMD, which ensures that the iPhone 13 will be launched on schedule this year, and also ensures that its products are fully stocked. Many friends around me have switched to the new iPhone 13, which shows Apple’s strong supplier management system.

But none of this is the most important reason for the chip shortage.

I personally believe that the core reason for the large-scale shortage of chips is that manufacturers deliberately control production capacity. As a qualified capitalist, in the face of a large amount of hot money, in addition to swallowing it, you must also calculate whether the money you earn is “worth it”.

We all know that the US dollar is almost an international currency, and natural resources such as oil are settled in US dollars.

With the development of the epidemic, the United States has begun to print money desperately in order to ease the domestic economic situation, which has caused a sharp decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. A lot of money began to go nowhere, which caused the madness of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin in the first half of the year.

The $1 a manufacturer receives today is not even as purchasing power as the 50 cents it received yesterday, and the money keeps pouring in. In this case, in addition to raising the price of the product, another way to keep yourself from losing your pants is to limit the output of the product.

After the two-pronged approach of increasing prices and limiting production, today’s chip shortage problem has formed.

So how do you view the issue of used car prices?

First of all, we must be clear that used cars are not increasing in price, but becoming more valuable.

Secondly, it is not the traditional used car dealers who put forward the concept of “price increase” or “value preservation”, but the car manufacturers themselves.

In the eyes of traditional car dealers, a car is a consumable item, and with the passage of time and the increase in usage, the value of the car will also decrease.

But in the eyes of manufacturers, they can’t wait for the cars they sell to become financial products, which are worth more every year.

Taking Citroen next door as an example, in order to save the last face of their used cars, they even launched an official recycling policy to maintain the price stability of used cars. Otherwise, who would buy a new car directly from the manufacturer if the new car is bought and driven for a year and loses half of it? Who would buy a new car that loses money like that? How can manufacturers establish brand value?

So, do chips really affect the price of used cars?

I don’t think there is much direct relationship between them. It is the manufacturer who forcibly linked the two together.

First of all, a car with a mileage of 15,000 kilometers has no reason to sell it as a car owner, unless it is tight for money.

Secondly, even if the invoice price is purchased, the seller will lose the most, because in addition to the car price, there are insurance, purchase tax, vehicle and vessel tax and other additional installations.

Finally, according to the current policy, the billed price is the actual transaction price. Around 2020, that is, before the price of chips does not increase, the price of cars should be affected by the epidemic and be at a very low price. That is to say, even if the price is paid to buy it back, the money the seller gets will not be able to buy a new model of the same model.

However, the current situation is that only Mercedes-Benz and BMW are engaged in this activity, and other brands have not done much. From the perspective of the deep meaning of the interpretation, it really fulfills the sentence, BBA does not pit the poor.

With the launch of new models, BBA has withdrawn the original discounts that were tens of thousands of dollars. Even BMW, for example, has also increased the price without increasing the amount on the basis of the new model. As a result, the price-performance ratio of the old models is indeed higher. As a manufacturer, there is indeed a reason to recycle them, so as not to affect the sales of the new models.

But again, the relationship between chips and used cars is more of a forced bundling by manufacturers. As a user, don’t pay too much attention to this small price fluctuation.

If we insist on what we need to pay attention to in this major economic fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the rise in the prices of raw materials such as oil caused by the decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar. This is what really concerns our lives.

However, if the epidemic in the United States is not under control, and the Federal Reserve continues to print money to alleviate its own crisis, then the truly terrible consequences are still waiting for us in the near future, and it may not be as simple as raising prices. .