In the past two years, the impact of the new crown epidemic on Electronic devices has continued, which has kept the electronic device industry in an unstable state. The three-month average change in electronic device production in major Asian countries compared to a year ago is as follows. Under the epidemic prevention and control, the company’s shutdown and production have affected the production work in early 2020, which shows a strong rebound trend in 2021.
Let’s take a look at the main trends:
A major shutdown in China at the beginning of 2020 resulted in a 6% drop in production in China in the first quarter of 2020 over the same period, and production in China did not begin to resume until April 2020, with a strong recovery in early 2021, with a stronger recovery in the first quarter of 2021. A 36% increase a year earlier. Since May 2021, China’s production growth has stabilized between 12% and 13%.
The production of electronic devices in South Korea has not been significantly affected by the outbreak, and its output in the first quarter of 2020 increased by 25% compared to the same period last year. The recent growth trend remains strong, up at least 20% since June 2021. South Korea has avoided the impact of the epidemic on production through timely epidemic prevention and control measures.
The output of electronic devices has been affected to a certain extent by the epidemic. In the first quarter of 2020, it only increased by 5% compared with the same period last year. Looking back, the quarterly growth rate in 2019 was basically more than 20%. Taiwanese production growth has been relatively stable in the 5% to 11% range since April 2020.
Electronic device production has been declining for years, largely as manufacturing firms have moved to countries where labor is cheaper. Positive growth was not achieved until August 2019, however production fell again in December of the same year. Japan avoided severe cases in the early stages of the outbreak, but a surge in cases in July and August 2020 led to some shutdowns, and production fell by 18% in September 2020. Production turned positive in February 2021, peaking at 11% in June 2021. Production has slowed since June, reaching a 0% change in October 2021.
In recent years, the production volume of the electronic device industry has been showing a strong growth trend, and the rise of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has originated from the transfer of this part of the industry in China and South Korea. Epidemic-related shutdowns led to a 12% drop in Vietnam’s production in May 2020, but this recovered in a shorter period of time, with Vietnam’s electronic device production hitting a 25% increase in January 2021. Combined with the situation of epidemic prevention and control, Vietnam has become a good example in the manufacturing of electronic devices. Vietnam’s strict prevention and control has led to relatively few epidemic cases in the country in 2020. However, starting in July 2021 in Vietnam, a new outbreak caused by the new coronavirus variant Delta has led to a sharp increase in cases. From July 8, 2021 to October 1, 2021, most of southern Vietnam was shut down, which led to an 11% drop in the production of electronic devices in August 2021; in November 2021, the decline was 6%.
The chart below shows the change in electronic device production during the same period in the first quarter in the United States, the United Kingdom and the 27 countries of the European Union.
The main trends are:
The production of electronic devices has not been significantly affected by the outbreak. In 2019, the production growth of electronic devices in the United States was weak, showing a growth change of -1% to 2%. This weakness continued in the first half of 2020, returning to the range of 6% to 9% between August 2020 and August 2021. In September and October 2021, growth slowed to around 4%.
Production was generally weak in 2019, falling from 3% to 4% growth. Due to the epidemic, the United Kingdom began to implement a nationwide lockdown in the first quarter of 2020, and the domestic slowdown did not slow down until May and June of the same year. Electronic device production for the year fell by 19% in both May and June. In April 2021, electronic device production achieved positive growth, with a 13% increase in the same period in June 2021. Economic growth in the UK has been decelerating over the past few months, and in addition to the pandemic, Brexit has also had a certain impact, which became apparent at the end of 2020.
At the beginning of 2020, countries adopted different lockdown policies, which caused the production of electronic devices to drop by 6% in the same period in April and May. In January 2021, production rebounded to a strong 24% increase and has since remained at 18% to 30% growth. In the area of electronics, the EU is the beneficiary of Brexit, thanks to some manufacturing in the UK that has now moved to the EU. In addition, the 27 EU countries as a whole are less affected by the new crown virus than the United Kingdom. According to Worldometer, the UK has 162 cases of the outbreak per 1,000 people, double the 80 cases in Germany, the EU’s largest manufacturer.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is also reflected in unit shipment figures for two key electronic devices – PCs and smartphones. According to IDC, PC shipments fell 8% in the first quarter of 2020 from the same period, which was tied to the pandemic-related production shutdowns. Over the next three quarters, PC shipments grew strongly, from 14% in the second quarter of 2020 to 26% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The first quarter of 2021 saw a 55% increase over the same period. Due to the epidemic, the market demand for PCs has grown strongly. Lockdowns and other restrictions have forced a surge in work-from-home demand, as has demand for online learning. The growth of electronic communications has led many households to purchase or upgrade PCs. But PC growth slowed to 4% in the third quarter of 2020 as demand growth also slowed. In addition, shortages of some electronic components have limited PC production. Recently, IDC expects PC shipments to grow by 13.5% in 2021, with growth slowing to 0.3% in 2021.
Smartphone shipments were severely affected by the outbreak in the first quarter of 2020, as most production was completed in China, which shut down most of its manufacturing in early 2020. IDC said smartphone shipments fell 12% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to a year ago, and fell 17% in the second quarter of 2020. Shipment growth recovered to 26% in Q2 2021 and 13% in Q2 2021. In the third quarter of 2021, shipments were down 7% from a year ago. IDC attributed the decline to component shortages and other logistical issues. IDC expects smartphone growth to reach 5.3% in 2021 and slow slightly to 3.0% in 2022.
The world, as well as the electronics industry, is still bearing the brunt of the pandemic. The Worldometer shows that the world is currently in the midst of a fifth wave of the virus. While the death rate from the outbreak is declining due to vaccinations, better treatments, and improved control methods, the production of electronics is still subject to numerous production shutdowns, component shortages, and logistical challenges that will likely continue to impact 2022. year. Perhaps, by 2023, electronics production should be back on track. The author has looked at the world with ordinary eyes. After all, the world will not return to normal for a long time.
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